World Cup 2026 Best Bets — Thursday July 2 Picks for Canadians

Updated July 2026
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Two of Thursday’s three knockout ties are on Canadian soil, which makes this the rare matchday where the value and the local watch-party line up perfectly. Spain open the card in Los Angeles at mid-afternoon ET; then it’s a Toronto–Vancouver doubleheader — Portugal and Croatia at BMO Field, Switzerland and Algeria closing the night at BC Place under the lights. Below: my three picks, the number I want, and where the C$ value actually sits on a straight Round-of-32 board.

A Canadian bettor's table with a betting slip and a TV showing a World Cup 2026 knockout night, warm evening light
Thursday’s knockout slate on a Canadian bettor’s table — one afternoon opener, then a Toronto-to-Vancouver doubleheader to close the night.

Quick facts before we dive deeper

1) Spain vs Austria — 3:00 PM ET, SoFi Stadium (Round of 32)

The price: Spain 1.33 (−303), Draw 5.25 (+425), Austria 10.00 (+900). Spain arrive as the only side to come through the group stage without conceding a single goal — a first in their history — but they do it short-handed: Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder) are both out, pushing even more creative load onto 18-year-old Lamine Yamal. Austria, under Ralf Rangnick, are into the knockouts for the first time since 1998 and arrive with a fully fit squad.

Value Bet: Spain to win and under 3.5 goals. At 1.33 the straight win is far too short to back alone; pairing it with a controlled scoreline against a disciplined Rangnick block usually nudges the combined line back toward 1.65–1.85 — the real number on a Spain side missing two wide starters.

Mistake to avoid: the Austria +ML at 10.00. They’re organised and they’ve earned this, but a clean-sheet Spain machine is the wrong side to chase a lottery ticket against.

2) Portugal vs Croatia — 7:00 PM ET, BMO Field, Toronto (Round of 32)

The price: Portugal 1.77–1.80 (−130), Draw 3.40–3.65 (+240), Croatia 4.70–5.00 (+400 range, 90-min line). Toronto gets a genuine heavyweight night — this likely frames the last World Cup of both Cristiano Ronaldo (40) and Luka Modrić (41). Croatia have been the overnight steam side, coming in roughly 45% shorter; Portugal drifted. Head-to-head, Portugal hold a 7-2-1 edge across ten meetings, the last a 1-1 Nations League draw in November 2024.

Value Bet: Draw at 3.40–3.65, or Croatia double-chance (X2) around 2.05. Two proud, deep, veteran-led sides in a one-off knockout on a hot, showery Toronto evening reads like a cagey 90 minutes. The market money on Croatia is telling; I’d rather be on the value side of a tie that has extra time written all over it.

My verdict: if you want the marquee-name flyer, Ronaldo anytime scorer is the sentimental play — but the disciplined ticket is the draw. See my full Toronto preview.

3) Switzerland vs Algeria — 11:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM PT, BC Place, Vancouver (Round of 32)

The price: Switzerland 2.02 (+102), Draw 3.10 (+210), Algeria 3.94 (+294). A prime-time BC kick to close the night, and a first-ever competitive meeting between the sides. Switzerland — the team that just edged Canada 2-1 to win Group B at this very stadium — arrive fully fit, with Granit Xhaka pulling the strings. Algeria squeezed through as a third-placed side after a wild 3-3 with Austria, and may be without Mohamed El Amine Amoura (serious thigh/hamstring doubt), a major blow to their front line.

Value Bet: Switzerland to win at 2.02. If Amoura misses, Algeria lose their sharpest runner and the Swiss midfield control becomes the story. Even-money on the fitter, more settled side at a stadium they’ve already conquered once this tournament is the slate’s cleanest number.

Mistake to avoid: overrating Algeria’s 3-3 "form." That was a chaotic dead-rubber shootout, not a defensive audition — and they may be missing the man who made it happen.

Putting it together — the Canadian-friendly parlay

Example: A C$25 three-leg parlay — Spain to win, Portugal-or-draw (1X), Switzerland to win — at market prices lands around 3.30–3.60. C$25 returns roughly C$85–90.

Bigger sticker, more variance. The straighter play is the three individual value angles above — same total stake, broader hit-rate, and you can cash the Swiss leg long after the Toronto crowd has gone home.

What time do Thursday’s World Cup matches kick off in Canada?
Spain-Austria is 3:00 PM ET; Portugal-Croatia is 7:00 PM ET at BMO Field, Toronto; Switzerland-Algeria closes at 11:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM PT at BC Place, Vancouver.
Which of Thursday’s games are played in Canada?
Two of the three — Portugal vs Croatia at BMO Field in Toronto and Switzerland vs Algeria at BC Place in Vancouver.
Are these odds in Canadian dollars?
Decimal odds are universal; the stakes and payouts here assume CAD, because we wager at Canadian-facing books — Boomerang Bet, BetiBet, WinRolla — in C$.