Portugal vs Croatia at BMO Field — Ronaldo vs Modrić Last Dance: Odds & Preview
Available in USToronto has hosted some big football nights, but nothing quite like this. BMO Field — the ground where Canada opened this whole World Cup against Bosnia — gets a genuine heavyweight knockout tie on Thursday, and very possibly the last World Cup appearance of two of the greatest players of the century. Cristiano Ronaldo is 40. Luka Modrić is 41. One of them will walk off the pitch in Toronto with his international career over. Here’s the preview, the local angle, and where the value sits in CAD.
Quick facts before we dive deeper
- Kickoff: Thu 2 July 2026, 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT / 6:00 PM CT / 8:00 PM AT / 8:30 PM NT.
- Venue: BMO Field, Toronto — open-air; a heat warning and ~40% chance of showers on the day.
- Round: Round of 32 — winner meets the Spain/Austria winner on 6 July.
- The subplot: likely the final World Cup of both Ronaldo (40) and Modrić (41), former Real Madrid team-mates with six Ballon d’Ors between them.
- Head-to-head: 10 meetings, Portugal 7 wins – 2 draws – 1 loss; last a 1-1 Nations League draw (Nov 2024).
The form line — two proud, veteran sides
Portugal came second in Group K on 5 points — a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan, and a goalless stalemate with Colombia. Roberto Martínez leans on Ronaldo up top with Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo-style creativity and João Félix around him. Croatia finished second in Group L on 6 points, losing 2-4 to England but beating Panama 1-0 and edging Paraguay 2-1; Modrić and Mateo Kovačić still run the midfield metronome, with Joško Gvardiol anchoring the back. Both squads come in with clean-ish injury tables — no notable absentees reported on either side.
The odds in CAD — what to bet
Decimal lines from market consensus, as of 2026-07-02 ~08:00 ET (90-minute 1X2; figures approximate):
| Outcome | Decimal | Implied | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal (1) | 1.77–1.80 | ~56% | −130 / −125 |
| Draw (X) | 3.40–3.65 | ~28% | +240 / +265 |
| Croatia (2) | 4.70–5.00 | ~20% | +370 / +400 |
Watch the movement: Croatia were the overnight steam side, shortening roughly 45% as money arrived, while Portugal drifted longer. That’s a market that respects Croatia’s knockout pedigree more than the 90-minute price suggests.
My value pick — the draw at 3.40–3.65
Two deep, experienced sides who both know exactly how to manage a one-off knockout, on a warm and possibly wet Toronto evening, with careers on the line — that reads like a cagey, low-tempo 90 minutes that stretches into extra time. The Croatia overnight money reinforces it. If you want a smaller floor, Croatia double-chance (X2) around 2.05 banks the same read with a wider net.
Sentiment pick: Ronaldo anytime scorer is the flyer half of Toronto will want on the ticket — reasonable as a small-stake keepsake, not as your main play.
Why Toronto should care
This is a World Cup knockout tie on Canadian grass. BMO Field is Toronto FC’s home and the stadium that staged Canada’s tournament opener — now it gets Ronaldo and Modrić, a fixture that would headline any World Cup anywhere on earth. For a city that follows the global game as closely as any in North America, a warm July evening at the foot of the CN Tower with two legends saying goodbye is a bucket-list night. The winner earns a 6 July date with whoever survives Spain–Austria.
Source links
- Form / squad notes: Goal; Sports Mole; RotoWire; Khel Now (2026-07-01/02)
- Head-to-head record: Goal; Sports Mole (2026-07-02)
- Odds and overnight moves: FOX Sports; FanDuel; bet365 via covers, 2026-07-02 ~08:00 ET
- Weather: AccuWeather; Environment Canada (2026-07-02)
