World Cup 2026 Best Bets — Monday June 22 Picks for Canadians
Four matches, four time zones to plan around, and a Messi record on the table at lunchtime ET. Monday’s slate is the kind of card that rewards a Canadian bettor who knows how to stack a same-game parlay before the late-night Jordan–Algeria kick. Below: my four picks, the price I want, the price I’ll walk from, and where the C$ value really sits.

Quick facts before we dive deeper
- Slate: 4 matches across Groups I and J.
- First kick: 1:00 PM ET (Argentina-Austria, AT&T Stadium, Arlington).
- Last kick: 11:00 PM ET (Jordan-Algeria, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara).
- Odds format: decimal, with American moneyline alongside; stakes in CAD.
- Source: odds from market consensus, as of 2026-06-22 ~10:00 ET; outright moves from FOX Sports (FanDuel) as of 2026-06-21.
1) Argentina vs Austria — 1:00 PM ET, AT&T Stadium (Group J)
The price: Argentina 1.58, Draw 3.65, Austria 5.38. Messi is one goal from breaking Miroslav Klose’s all-time men’s World Cup record of 16 after his hat-trick against Algeria — Al Jazeera and Pablo Aimar (Argentina’s assistant coach, "Austria is a very tough team") both flagged this as Messi’s likely last World Cup outing. David Alaba leads an Austrian side that opened with a 3-1 win over Jordan and is missing Christoph Baumgartner for the tournament (thigh surgery).
Value Bet: Messi anytime scorer + Argentina to win. Same-game parlay at most Canadian books prices near 2.20–2.40. The standalone Argentina win at 1.58 is too short — the layered ticket holds the same probability with much better number.
Mistake to avoid: chasing Austria +ML (5.38). Austria are organised, but Argentina haven’t lost in 8 and have the only world-class No. 10 still playing in this tournament.
2) France vs Iraq — 5:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field (Group I)
The price: France 1.08, Draw 7.68, Iraq 27.84. Opta has France at 88.5% to win this. Mbappé could collect his 100th cap; he’s already France’s all-time top scorer after his brace v Senegal. Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway in the opener.
Value Bet: Mbappé over 0.5 goals + France -1.5 handicap. The straight win at 1.08 is dead money. Mbappé to score and France -1.5 typically lands around 2.10–2.30 at PROLINE+ and PlayNow — that’s the real number.
My verdict: France’s group-of-death talk has flattered Senegal. Iraq are first-time WC entrants since 1986 on poor form. France probably score three.
3) Norway vs Senegal — 8:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium (Group I)
The price: Norway 2.04, Draw 3.41, Senegal 3.22. Knockout implications are real — Norway have won 11 straight competitive games, Haaland has scored in 11 straight. Senegal lost 3-1 to France in the opener; Koulibaly is back and started that game. Opta tags Norway at 45.0% / Draw 25.4% / Senegal 29.6%.
Value Bet: Haaland anytime scorer at ~1.65 + over 2.5 goals at ~1.80. SGP price typically lands around 3.00. Senegal will push for the equaliser even at 1-0 down, which opens space behind for Haaland.
Mistake to avoid: the Senegal +ML at 3.22 looks juicy after the France defeat — but they were stylistically outclassed, not unlucky, and Norway’s defensive shape is far more disciplined than the casual viewer expects.
4) Jordan vs Algeria — 11:00 PM ET, Levi’s Stadium (Group J)
The price: Jordan 6.24, Draw 3.98, Algeria 1.47. Riyad Mahrez returns to the Algeria starting XI; Jordan are without ACL casualty Yazan Al Naimat and have Abdallah Nasib doubtful.
Value Bet: Algeria win and over 1.5 goals. That ticket usually trades around 1.90. Algeria need a result after losing 0-3 to Argentina and will press for an early goal in front of a friendly Bay Area crowd.
My verdict: the late kickoff is the slate’s value spot. Algeria 2-0 or 2-1 are the most likely scorelines on Opta-style models, and Jordan haven’t scored from open play since their qualifying campaign closed.
Putting it together — the Canadian-friendly parlay
Bigger sticker; longer odds. The straighter play is the four individual SGPs I’ve outlined — same total stake, broader hit-rate, and you can cash one leg without the others.
Source links
- Match odds: market consensus, 2026-06-22 ~10:00 ET
- Outright moves: FOX Sports / FanDuel, 2026-06-21 (https://www.foxsports.com/stories/soccer/world-cup-2026-champion-odds)
- Argentina-Austria preview: https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/6/21/messi-argentina-play-austria-in-world-cup-group-match-all-to-know
- Norway-Senegal preview: https://theanalyst.com/articles/norway-vs-senegal-prediction-world-cup-2026-match-preview