World Cup 2026 Best Bets — Monday June 22 Picks for Canadians

Updated July 2026
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Four matches, four time zones to plan around, and a Messi record on the table at lunchtime ET. Monday’s slate is the kind of card that rewards a Canadian bettor who knows how to stack a same-game parlay before the late-night Jordan–Algeria kick. Below: my four picks, the price I want, the price I’ll walk from, and where the C$ value really sits.

A clean Canadian betting slip on a wooden bar table with a TV showing World Cup 2026 in the background, late-afternoon light
The Monday card on a Canadian bettor’s table — one early game, two prime-time picks, one late-night value bet to close the slate.

Quick facts before we dive deeper

1) Argentina vs Austria — 1:00 PM ET, AT&T Stadium (Group J)

The price: Argentina 1.58, Draw 3.65, Austria 5.38. Messi is one goal from breaking Miroslav Klose’s all-time men’s World Cup record of 16 after his hat-trick against Algeria — Al Jazeera and Pablo Aimar (Argentina’s assistant coach, "Austria is a very tough team") both flagged this as Messi’s likely last World Cup outing. David Alaba leads an Austrian side that opened with a 3-1 win over Jordan and is missing Christoph Baumgartner for the tournament (thigh surgery).

Value Bet: Messi anytime scorer + Argentina to win. Same-game parlay at most Canadian books prices near 2.20–2.40. The standalone Argentina win at 1.58 is too short — the layered ticket holds the same probability with much better number.

Mistake to avoid: chasing Austria +ML (5.38). Austria are organised, but Argentina haven’t lost in 8 and have the only world-class No. 10 still playing in this tournament.

2) France vs Iraq — 5:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field (Group I)

The price: France 1.08, Draw 7.68, Iraq 27.84. Opta has France at 88.5% to win this. Mbappé could collect his 100th cap; he’s already France’s all-time top scorer after his brace v Senegal. Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway in the opener.

Value Bet: Mbappé over 0.5 goals + France -1.5 handicap. The straight win at 1.08 is dead money. Mbappé to score and France -1.5 typically lands around 2.10–2.30 at PROLINE+ and PlayNow — that’s the real number.

My verdict: France’s group-of-death talk has flattered Senegal. Iraq are first-time WC entrants since 1986 on poor form. France probably score three.

3) Norway vs Senegal — 8:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium (Group I)

The price: Norway 2.04, Draw 3.41, Senegal 3.22. Knockout implications are real — Norway have won 11 straight competitive games, Haaland has scored in 11 straight. Senegal lost 3-1 to France in the opener; Koulibaly is back and started that game. Opta tags Norway at 45.0% / Draw 25.4% / Senegal 29.6%.

Value Bet: Haaland anytime scorer at ~1.65 + over 2.5 goals at ~1.80. SGP price typically lands around 3.00. Senegal will push for the equaliser even at 1-0 down, which opens space behind for Haaland.

Mistake to avoid: the Senegal +ML at 3.22 looks juicy after the France defeat — but they were stylistically outclassed, not unlucky, and Norway’s defensive shape is far more disciplined than the casual viewer expects.

4) Jordan vs Algeria — 11:00 PM ET, Levi’s Stadium (Group J)

The price: Jordan 6.24, Draw 3.98, Algeria 1.47. Riyad Mahrez returns to the Algeria starting XI; Jordan are without ACL casualty Yazan Al Naimat and have Abdallah Nasib doubtful.

Value Bet: Algeria win and over 1.5 goals. That ticket usually trades around 1.90. Algeria need a result after losing 0-3 to Argentina and will press for an early goal in front of a friendly Bay Area crowd.

My verdict: the late kickoff is the slate’s value spot. Algeria 2-0 or 2-1 are the most likely scorelines on Opta-style models, and Jordan haven’t scored from open play since their qualifying campaign closed.

Putting it together — the Canadian-friendly parlay

Example: A C$25 four-leg parlay — Argentina to win, France -1.5, Norway-or-draw, Algeria to win — at market prices lands around 9.50–10.50. C$25 returns approximately C$237.

Bigger sticker; longer odds. The straighter play is the four individual SGPs I’ve outlined — same total stake, broader hit-rate, and you can cash one leg without the others.

Are these odds in Canadian dollars?
Decimal odds are universal; the stake and payout calculations on this page assume CAD because we wager at Canadian books — PROLINE+, PlayNow, Mise-o-jeu — in C$.
Which match is Canada’s local pick today?
Canada don’t play Monday; the next Canadian fixture is Switzerland vs Canada on Wednesday 24 June at BC Place. See our match preview.
Where do the live odds move during the day?
Track outright shifts on our Live Odds page — Argentina was the biggest 24-hour mover into Monday after Messi’s hat-trick.